UM's Running says expect shorter winters, more forest infestations with climate change -- The Missoulian

http://www.missoulian.com/news/local/article_544db786-fb4e-11de-805b-001cc4c002e0.html

Note: Climate expert Steve Running was the keynote speaker for the Northern Plains 2007 Annual Meeting.

Winters in the northern Rocky Mountains will shorten and the region's forests will become more susceptible to insect infestation and severe forest fires as a result of climate change over the next century, according to a recently released study.

In fact, supporting data have already become evident, said University of Montana forestry professor Steve Running, an international expert on climate change.

Running conducted the two-year study, funded by the National Commission on Energy Policy, a bipartisan nonprofit organization that evaluates key policy issues related to energy.

It's not often Running, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his study of global climate change, holds a news conference to summarize the findings of his research. But the impacts of drought in the northern Rocky Mountains - primarily Montana, Wyoming and Idaho - will be significant to the region's economy, wildlife and environment, he said.

The greatest concern, Running said, is the heightened possibility of catastrophic forest fires affecting up to 360,000 people living in forested areas and costing upward of $21 billion.

Based on climate data from 1950 to the present, scientists built three global climate models to predict the effects of climate change in the next century. Unlike coastal areas, the northern Rocky Mountains can't rely on the ocean to help regulate its temperature, which explains why scientists believe temperatures here will increase above the global average.

Over the course of the next century, climate projections for the northern Rocky Mountains include an increase of 3.6 degreee to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

"The real impacts on Montana are really all about water," Running said.

As temperatures rise, the winter will shorten, Running said. By late in the century, data show that this region will see two additional months of summer drought. Shorter winters mean fewer days of snow on the ground and earlier peak snowmelt. Already this winter, Montana is seeing below-average snowpack in most areas of the state.

The seasons will shift slightly, he said.

As Running spoke Tuesday, snow fell on Missoula and even more heavily in the Flathead. The last two summers have been cool, keeping fires in western Montana relatively at bay. But that's the difference between weather and climate, Running quickly pointed out.

Sure, there's going to be an occasional cool summer or large snowfall, but there's no abundance of water, either, he said. It's a matter of looking at the long-term data.

"It's people's perceptions versus reality," he said.

Already, Montana is seeing fewer days where the mercury dips below zero, he said. Several decades ago, temperatures would drop below zero a dozen times in a winter. Anymore, that occurs maybe only three or four times, he said.

Without those frigid temperatures, insects such as mountain pine beetle, which is wreaking havoc on forests in the northern Rocky Mountains, can mature more rapidly. The cold freezes the insect larva.

Lack of that prolonged cold is "why this mountain pine beetle has really gotten going," he said.

While the spread of red trees over the last few years is certainly not the first outbreak of pine beetle, it's the first time the outbreak has spread "to a range that's unprecedented." Before, Running said, the problem has been confined to a smaller area.

Running said that if someone had asked him about it a decade ago, he'd not have predicted such changes occurring until the middle of the 21st century. The fact that these changes are already occurring, he said, "makes us Earth scientists nervous."

The Earth has certainly seen hot temperatures before, he said. Millions of years ago, there was no ice on Earth at all. But as Running likes to say, the Earth doesn't need humans. Humans need the Earth. The Earth will exist if temperatures increase. The question is whether humans can, he said.

So, what can people do?

"Go to Copenhagen and march in the same direction," Running said, only half in jest.

Lobbying local leaders is the best option, he said. Running pointed to the recent decision by the State Land Board, consisting of the five top elected officials in Montana, to lease the Otter Creek Valley in eastern Montana to coal mining as a prime example of a failed opportunity for local leaders to fight global climate change. Running testified at a hearing in Helena against leasing the 572-million tons of state-owned coal.

"If local policy makers continue to say this is the easiest money we can get ... because we're just a little piece of the problem, well, if every leader everywhere thought that way, then I don't think we're going anywhere," Running said.

Reporter Chelsi Moy can be reached at 523-5260 or at chelsi.moy@missoulian.com.